Russian forces are threatening a key supply route for Ukrainian troops and have “likely” seized the center of Bakhmut after more than six months of brutal fighting over the town, the U.K. defense ministry said Friday.
Russian troops, largely led by Wagner mercenary forces, have been attempting to encircle the town to pinch it from the north and south, and on Wednesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he would pull their forces from the area if that threat became too great.
“In recent days, Russian forces have regained some momentum in the battle for Bakhmut. Since late March 2023 their advance had largely stalled,” the ministry said in its daily intelligence assessment. “Russia has made further gains and has now highly likely advanced into the town center, and has seized the west bank of the Bakhmutka River.”
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Western defense officials have long argued that the town, now largely decimated after months of ground warfare and heavy artillery strikes, hold little value for Russia strategically and has become a symbolic fight for Moscow.
Russia has invested vast and disproportionate resources to securing the town as defense officials anticipate a major Ukrainian counter-offensive this spring.
Analysts believe that Ukraine will likely target a vital area in the Zaphorizhzhia region that is strategically necessary to retake Kherson, secure sea lanes in the Black Sea, push northeast into Donetsk and encroach on Russian-occupied Crimea.
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However, Ukraine could also be preparing for a second offensive in the east, particularly in the Bakhmut sector.
Fighting within Russia’s ranks and its Wagner mercenary forces have long been reported and have even led to suspected failures by the invading forces in the Donetsk region.
However, the U.K. defense ministry said it suspects that “there is realistic possibility that, locally, Wagner and Russian MoD [Ministry of Defense] commanders have paused their ongoing feud and improved co-operation.”
“Russian regular forces, likely including airborne troops, have probably reinforced the area, and Russia is again using artillery more effectively in the sector,” it assessed.
It is unclear if Ukrainian troops have backed off from the fight for Bakhmut as Zelenskyy suggested they might, though one Ukrainian military command spokesman told Reuters Friday that while the situation remains difficult, Russia has not yet had “strategic success”.
